Illescas vs Toledo: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Group 18 - 12Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Illescas, Illescas
The Footlab AI model makes Toledo the favourite at 39%, against 35% for a draw and 26% for Illescas. The most likely score is 0-0. If Toledo wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,422 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Illescas vs Toledo?
Toledo starts as the favourite with a 154-point Elo edge (1,916 vs 1,762).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Illescas vs Toledo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Illescas
Not enough data to predict the Illescas lineup.
Toledo
Not enough data to predict the Toledo lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 02:53 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Illescas have 6 wins, 7 draws and 2 defeats; Toledo have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | La Solana(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Noblejas(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Villarrubia(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Quintanar del Rey(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Socuéllamos(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Huracán Balazote(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Villacañas(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | La Solana(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Noblejas(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Villarrubia(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Illescas win, 1 draw, 4 Toledo wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Illescas 1-1 Toledo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Toledo 4-0 Illescas | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Jan 4, 2025 | Illescas 1-2 Toledo | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 23, 2023 | Illescas 5-1 Toledo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Jan 8, 2023 | Toledo 2-0 Illescas | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Feb 21, 2021 | Toledo 3-0 Illescas | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
How many goals should we expect?
Illescas score 0.9 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Toledo score 1.7 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 26% probability of over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illescas | 0.9 | 0.5 | 8 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
| Toledo | 1.7 | 0.8 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Illescas sit 2nd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 (14 points from 6 matches) and Toledo sit 5th (10 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Illescas | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Toledo | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 10 |
A question about Illescas vs Toledo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Illescas vs Toledo?
- The Footlab AI model makes Toledo the favourite at 39%, against 35% for a draw and 26% for Illescas.
- Where and when is Illescas vs Toledo played?
- Illescas vs Toledo is played on November 22, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Illescas, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 18.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 26% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.