Tondela vs Feirense: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 33Kick-off on May 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio João Cardoso, Tondela
The Footlab model makes Tondela the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Feirense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tondela vs Feirense?
A very open match: only 56 Elo points separate Tondela (1,935) and Feirense (1,879).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tondela have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Feirense have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Academica(home) | 0-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Leixoes(away) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Amarante(home) | 2-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | São João Ver(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Academica(away) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(home) | 0-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | União Lamas(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | União de Leiria(away) | 2-2 | Segunda Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Tondela win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Feirense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2025 | Tondela 2-1 Feirense | Segunda Liga |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Feirense 1-1 Tondela | Segunda Liga |
| Apr 6, 2024 | Feirense 1-3 Tondela | Segunda Liga |
| Nov 18, 2023 | Tondela 2-0 Feirense | Segunda Liga |
| May 6, 2023 | Tondela 1-1 Feirense | Segunda Liga |
| Dec 23, 2022 | Feirense 1-1 Tondela | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Tondela score 1.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Feirense score 0.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tondela | 1.0 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Feirense | 0.7 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tondela sit 11th in Segunda Liga (3 points from 3 matches) and Feirense sit 15th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Tondela | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 15 | Feirense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tondela vs Feirense?
- The Footlab model makes Tondela the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Feirense.
- Where and when is Tondela vs Feirense played?
- Tondela vs Feirense is played on May 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio João Cardoso, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.