Tondela vs Leixoes: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 19Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio João Cardoso, Tondela
The Footlab AI model makes Tondela the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Leixoes. The most likely score is 1-1. If Tondela wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,800 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tondela vs Leixoes?
A very open match: only 40 Elo points separate Tondela (2,032) and Leixoes (1,993).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Tondela vs Leixoes
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Tondela
4-2-3-1- 19Tómané
- 20Hugo Félix
- 7Cascavel
- 97Cícero
- 37Sarará
- 8Hélder Tavares
- 15Carraça
- 12Zé Ricardo
- 4Christian Marques
- 6Farru
- 28Araujo Carlos
Leixoes
4-1-3-2- 7Salvador Agra
- 6A. Balde
- 22Cláudio Vítor Rodrigues Araújo
- 8Miguel Sousa
- 10Rafael Barbosa
- 80João Assunção
- 4Matheus Costa
- 77Paulinho
- 15Simãozinho
- 63H. Faria
- 51I. Stefanović
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 07:19 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tondela have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Leixoes have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Alverca(home) | 2-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Torreense(home) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Imortal Albufeira(away) | 5-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Portimonense(away) | 2-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | FC Porto B(home) | 3-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Vianense(away) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 10, 2026 | FC Porto B(home) | 1-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Cinfães(away) | 4-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Torreense(away) | 0-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Amarante(home) | 3-1 | Segunda Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Tondela wins, 1 draw, 2 Leixoes wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Leixoes 1-0 Tondela | Segunda Liga |
| Mar 10, 2025 | Leixoes 0-1 Tondela | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Tondela 2-1 Leixoes | Segunda Liga |
| Mar 3, 2024 | Leixoes 1-1 Tondela | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 7, 2023 | Tondela 4-2 Leixoes | Segunda Liga |
| Apr 8, 2023 | Tondela 2-3 Leixoes | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Tondela score 1.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Leixoes score 2.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tondela | 1.4 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Leixoes | 2.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tondela sit 7th in Segunda Liga (12 points from 7 matches) and Leixoes sit 10th (10 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tondela | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 12 |
| 10 | Leixoes | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 10 |
A question about Tondela vs Leixoes?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tondela vs Leixoes?
- The Footlab AI model makes Tondela the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Leixoes.
- Where and when is Tondela vs Leixoes played?
- Tondela vs Leixoes is played on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio João Cardoso, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.