Academica vs Tondela: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaMatchday 20Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio EFAPEL, Coimbra
The Footlab AI model makes Academica the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Tondela. The most likely score is 1-1. If Academica wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,522 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 12, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Academica vs Tondela?
A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Academica (2,034) and Tondela (2,023).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Academica vs Tondela
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Academica
4-3-3- 8K. Zohi
- 23Rui Gomes
- 19Afonso Rodrigues
- 20J. Sinisterra
- 25L. Pierre
- 92A. Coundoul
- 5Leandro Silva
- 3Ricardo Teixeira
- 2Xavi
- 22Hélder Lopes
- 12Victor Braga
Tondela
4-2-3-1- 19Tómané
- 20Hugo Félix
- 7Cascavel
- 37Sarará
- 8Hélder Tavares
- 97Cícero
- 12Zé Ricardo
- 4Christian Marques
- 15Carraça
- 23B. Medina
- 28Araujo Carlos
Computed on November 12, 2026 at 08:33 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Academica have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Tondela have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Amarante(home) | 1-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Vizela(away) | 1-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Leixoes(home) | 4-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Amarante(home) | 3-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | União de Leiria(away) | 2-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Sporting CP B(away) | 1-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(home) | 3-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 25, 2026 | AVS(away) | 1-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Alverca(home) | 2-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Torreense(home) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Academica win, 2 draws, 3 Tondela wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Tondela 0-2 Academica | Segunda Liga |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Tondela 2-1 Academica | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 10, 2024 | Academica 1-3 Tondela | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2023 | Tondela 1-1 Academica | Friendlies Clubs |
| Oct 2, 2022 | Academica 1-1 Tondela | Taça de Portugal |
| May 14, 2016 | Tondela 2-0 Academica | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Academica score 1.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Tondela score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academica | 1.9 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Tondela | 1.5 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Academica sit 6th in Segunda Liga (16 points from 10 matches) and Tondela sit 7th (16 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Academica | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 13 | 16 |
| 7 | Tondela | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 11 | 16 |
A question about Academica vs Tondela?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Academica vs Tondela?
- The Footlab AI model makes Academica the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Tondela.
- Where and when is Academica vs Tondela played?
- Academica vs Tondela is played on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio EFAPEL, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.