Academica vs Tondela: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 20Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio EFAPEL, Coimbra
The Footlab model makes Academica the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Tondela. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Academica vs Tondela?
A very open match: only 93 Elo points separate Academica (2,027) and Tondela (1,935).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Academica have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Tondela have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Tondela(away) | 2-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Feirense(home) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chaves(away) | 4-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Caldas(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | União Santarém(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Academica(home) | 0-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Leixoes(away) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Amarante(home) | 2-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | São João Ver(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Academica win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Tondela win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Tondela 0-2 Academica | Segunda Liga |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Tondela 2-1 Academica | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 10, 2024 | Academica 1-3 Tondela | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2023 | Tondela 1-1 Academica | Friendlies Clubs |
| Oct 2, 2022 | Academica 1-1 Tondela | Taça de Portugal |
| May 14, 2016 | Tondela 2-0 Academica | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Academica score 1.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Tondela score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academica | 1.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Tondela | 1.0 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Academica sit 1st in Segunda Liga (9 points from 3 matches) and Tondela sit 13th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Academica | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 9 |
| 13 | Tondela | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Academica vs Tondela?
- The Footlab model makes Academica the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Tondela.
- Where and when is Academica vs Tondela played?
- Academica vs Tondela is played on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio EFAPEL, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.