Toulouse vs Lens: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 18Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
The Footlab AI model makes Lens the favourite at 54%, against 22% for a draw and 24% for Toulouse. The most likely score is 1-1. If Lens wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,404 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Toulouse vs Lens?
Lens starts as the favourite with a 180-point Elo edge (2,188 vs 2,008).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Toulouse vs Lens
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Toulouse
4-2-3-1- 13J. Russell-Rowe
- 23C. Cásseres
- 8T. Jørgensen
- 37Y. Azizi
- 20C. Tengstedt
- 6A. Vossah
- 12C. Tapé
- 3M. McKenzie
- 22R. Messali
- 5S. Koumbassa
- 16G. Restes
Lens
3-4-2-1- 11O. Édouard
- 10F. Thauvin
- 14M. Udol
- 27M. Cuisance
- 2R. Aguilar
- 8Y. Titraoui
- 21A. Haidara
- 32K. Antonio
- 25I. Ganiou
- 24J. Gradit
- 40R. Risser
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 08:30 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Toulouse have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Lens have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Monaco(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | PAU(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Le Havre(home) | 3-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Lorient(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Lille(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Sporting CP(home) | 0-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Lyon(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Monaco(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Le Mans(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Slavia Praha(away) | 3-2 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Toulouse win, 1 draw, 4 Lens wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2026 | Lens 4-1 Toulouse | Coupe de France |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Lens 3-2 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| Jan 2, 2026 | Toulouse 0-3 Lens | Ligue 1 |
| May 10, 2025 | Toulouse 1-1 Lens | Ligue 1 |
| Jan 5, 2025 | Lens 0-1 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| Jan 28, 2024 | Toulouse 0-2 Lens | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Toulouse score 1.6 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Lens score 1.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | 1.6 | 1.9 | 0 | 13/15 | 12/15 |
| Lens | 1.8 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Toulouse sit 15th in Ligue 1 (6 points from 6 matches) and Lens sit 10th (7 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 7 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 6 |
A question about Toulouse vs Lens?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Toulouse vs Lens?
- The Footlab AI model makes Lens the favourite at 54%, against 22% for a draw and 24% for Toulouse.
- Where and when is Toulouse vs Lens played?
- Toulouse vs Lens is played on January 30, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadium de Toulouse, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.