Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 18Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade Louis-II, Monaco
The Footlab AI model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 54%, against 23% for a draw and 23% for Monaco. The most likely score is 1-1. If Paris Saint Germain wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain starts as the favourite with a 180-point Elo edge (2,351 vs 2,171).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Monaco
4-2-3-1- 11M. Abline
- 8L. Camara
- 6D. Zakaria
- 10A. Golovin
- 37E. Diop
- 7M. Detourbet
- 15E. Dier
- 72Sadibou Sané
- 2Vanderson
- 20Flávio Nazinho
- 1L. Hrádecký
Paris Saint Germain
4-3-3- 11M. Akliouche
- 10O. Dembélé
- 9Ferran Torres
- 87João Neves
- 17Vitinha
- 33W. Zaïre-Emery
- 2A. Hakimi
- 51W. Pacho
- 5Marquinhos
- 25Nuno Mendes
- 39M. Safonov
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 09:14 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Monaco have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Paris Saint Germain have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Toulouse(home) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Lens(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Strasbourg(away) | 1-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(away) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Marseille(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Manchester City(away) | 4-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Le Mans(home) | 3-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Marseille(away) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Slovan Bratislava(home) | 6-1 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Monaco wins, 1 draw, 2 Paris Saint Germain wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain 1-2 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 6, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain 1-3 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 25, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain 2-2 Monaco | UEFA Champions League |
| Feb 17, 2026 | Monaco 2-3 Paris Saint Germain | UEFA Champions League |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Monaco 1-0 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 7, 2025 | Paris Saint Germain 4-1 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco on Sep 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Monaco score 2.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Paris Saint Germain score 1.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco | 2.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Paris Saint Germain | 1.9 | 1.3 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Monaco sit 1st in Ligue 1 (14 points from 6 matches) and Paris Saint Germain sit 6th (11 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 11 |
A question about Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain?
- The Footlab AI model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 54%, against 23% for a draw and 23% for Monaco.
- Where and when is Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain played?
- Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain is played on January 30, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Louis-II, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.