Marseille vs Estac Troyes: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 18Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade Orange Vélodrome, Marseille
The Footlab AI model makes Marseille the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Estac Troyes. The most likely score is 1-1. If Marseille wins, the most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,403 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marseille vs Estac Troyes?
Marseille starts as the favourite with a 122-point Elo edge (2,055 vs 1,933).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Marseille vs Estac Troyes
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Marseille
4-2-3-1- 9A. Gouiri
- 8H. Abdelli
- 77A. Harit
- 14Igor Paixão
- 7A. Gomes
- 23P. Højbjerg
- 4C. Egan-Riley
- 33Emerson
- 21N. Aguerd
- 22T. Weah
- 12J. de Lange
Estac Troyes
4-2-3-1- 9J. Le Douaron
- 8M. Diop
- 17A. Mille
- 29D. Karim
- 11I. Gomis
- 7K. Diawara
- 6A. Monfray
- 4M. Diaz
- 2L. Maronnier
- 5P. Gozzi
- 33P. Beach
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 04:10 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marseille have 6 wins, 1 draw and 8 defeats; Estac Troyes have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Estac Troyes(away) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(home) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Beşiktaş(away) | 1-4 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Rennes(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Paris FC(home) | 2-3 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Marseille(home) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Dijon(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Angers(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Lille(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 2-6 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Marseille wins, 1 draw, 0 Estac Troyes wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Estac Troyes 0-2 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 16, 2023 | Marseille 3-1 Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
| Jan 11, 2023 | Estac Troyes 0-2 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 27, 2022 | Estac Troyes 1-1 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 28, 2021 | Marseille 1-0 Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 15, 2018 | Estac Troyes 2-3 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: Estac Troyes vs Marseille on Oct 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Marseille score 1.4 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Estac Troyes score 1.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Estac Troyes | 1.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Marseille sit 13th in Ligue 1 (6 points from 6 matches) and Estac Troyes sit 17th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
A question about Marseille vs Estac Troyes?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marseille vs Estac Troyes?
- The Footlab AI model makes Marseille the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Estac Troyes.
- Where and when is Marseille vs Estac Troyes played?
- Marseille vs Estac Troyes is played on January 30, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Orange Vélodrome, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.