Marseille vs Estac Troyes: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 18Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade Orange Vélodrome, Marseille
The Footlab model makes Marseille the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Estac Troyes. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marseille vs Estac Troyes?
Marseille starts as the favourite with a 120-point Elo edge (2,088 vs 1,969).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marseille have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Estac Troyes have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 4-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Nimes(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | Rennes(home) | 3-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Paris FC(home) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Panetolikos(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Auxerre(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Chasselay MDA(home) | 5-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Grenoble(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Marseille win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Estac Troyes win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2023 | Marseille 3-1 Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
| Jan 11, 2023 | Estac Troyes 0-2 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 27, 2022 | Estac Troyes 1-1 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 28, 2021 | Marseille 1-0 Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 15, 2018 | Estac Troyes 2-3 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Dec 20, 2017 | Marseille 3-1 Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: Marseille vs Estac Troyes on Apr 16, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Marseille score 1.6 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Estac Troyes score 2.1 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 1.6 | 1.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Estac Troyes | 2.1 | 0.8 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Marseille sit 1st in Ligue 1 (3 points from 1 matches) and Estac Troyes sit 13th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marseille | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Estac Troyes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marseille vs Estac Troyes?
- The Footlab model makes Marseille the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Estac Troyes.
- Where and when is Marseille vs Estac Troyes played?
- Marseille vs Estac Troyes is played on January 30, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Orange Vélodrome, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.