TSC Backa Topola vs Grafičar: prediction and stats
Prva LigaRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)TSC Arena, Bačka Topola
The Footlab model makes TSC Backa Topola the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 20% for Grafičar. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win TSC Backa Topola vs Grafičar?
TSC Backa Topola starts as the favourite with a 109-point Elo edge (1,678 vs 1,569).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, TSC Backa Topola have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Grafičar have 4, 1 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Napredak(away) | 2-1 | Prva Liga |
| Aug 19, 2026 | FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV(home) | 2-2 | Prva Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Jedinstvo Ub(away) | 3-2 | Prva Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Javor(home) | 1-1 | Prva Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | OFK Vršac(home) | 1-0 | Prva Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Naftagas(away) | 1-2 | Prva Liga |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Loznica(home) | 2-2 | Prva Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | FK Vozdovac(away) | 1-0 | Prva Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Semendrija 1924(home) | 1-2 | Prva Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Napredak(away) | 0-1 | Prva Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 TSC Backa Topola win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Grafičar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2025 | Grafičar 2-0 TSC Backa Topola | Cup |
| Feb 1, 2023 | TSC Backa Topola 2-1 Grafičar | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 5, 2022 | TSC Backa Topola 4-2 Grafičar | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Grafičar vs TSC Backa Topola on Oct 29, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
TSC Backa Topola score 2.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Grafičar score 1.0 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSC Backa Topola | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1 | 14/15 | 12/15 |
| Grafičar | 1.0 | 1.4 | 3 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
TSC Backa Topola sit 3rd in Prva Liga (11 points from 5 matches) and Grafičar sit 10th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | TSC Backa Topola | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 11 |
| 10 | Grafičar | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for TSC Backa Topola vs Grafičar?
- The Footlab model makes TSC Backa Topola the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 20% for Grafičar.
- Where and when is TSC Backa Topola vs Grafičar played?
- TSC Backa Topola vs Grafičar is played on October 3, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at TSC Arena, in the Prva Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.