Match

Turégano vs UD Santa Marta: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Group 8 · Matchday 11Kick-off on November 14, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)

TuréganoUD Santa Marta

The Footlab AI model makes UD Santa Marta the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Turégano. The most likely score is 1-1. If UD Santa Marta wins, the most likely score is 0-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,583 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Turégano vs UD Santa Marta?

UD Santa Marta starts as the favourite with a 117-point Elo edge (1,830 vs 1,713).

25%28%47%
Turégano winDrawUD Santa Marta win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Turégano vs UD Santa Marta

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Turégano

4-3-3
  1. 7Alcubilla
  2. 10Juan Núñez
  3. 11Carlos Cotrina
  1. 5David Aguado
  2. 14Guillermo Martín Duque
  3. 20Adri González
  1. 3David Arranz Sanz
  2. 2Javier García
  3. 4Julio Gómez
  4. 16Marcos San Miguel
  1. 1Álvaro González

UD Santa Marta

Not enough data to predict the UD Santa Marta lineup.

Computed on November 13, 2026 at 09:17 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 13 matches in all competitions, Turégano have 3 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; UD Santa Marta have 9, 3 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Turégano
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 8, 2026Burgos Promesas(away)2-0Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Nov 1, 2026Cultural Leonesa II(home)1-1Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Oct 24, 2026Palencia CF(away)1-1Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Oct 17, 2026Colegios Diocesanos(home)3-2Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Oct 10, 2026Villaralbo(away)2-2Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
UD Santa Marta
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 7, 2026Calasanz de Soria(home)5-0Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Oct 31, 2026Salamanca II(away)2-0Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Oct 24, 2026Almazán(home)2-1Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Oct 18, 2026Mirandés II(away)0-0Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Oct 11, 2026Burgos Promesas(away)1-1Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

How many goals should we expect?

Turégano score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 13; UD Santa Marta score 1.5 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Turégano1.21.528/136/13
UD Santa Marta1.50.876/157/15

Over the last 13 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Turégano sit 13th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 (11 points from 10 matches) and UD Santa Marta sit 1st (23 points from 10 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
1UD Santa Marta1072118623
13Turégano10253121311

A question about Turégano vs UD Santa Marta?

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Turégano vs UD Santa Marta?
The Footlab AI model makes UD Santa Marta the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Turégano.
Where and when is Turégano vs UD Santa Marta played?
Turégano vs UD Santa Marta is played on November 14, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC), in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Turégano and UD Santa Marta