Tusker vs Al Ahli Wad Medani: prediction and stats
CAF Confederation Cup1st Preliminary RoundKick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Ruaraka Stadium, Nairobi
The Footlab model makes Tusker the favourite at 45%, against 30% for a draw and 25% for Al Ahli Wad Medani. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tusker vs Al Ahli Wad Medani?
A very open match: only 81 Elo points separate Tusker (1,520) and Al Ahli Wad Medani (1,600).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tusker have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Al Ahli Wad Medani have 11, 2 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | KVZ(home) | 2-0 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Rayon Sports(home) | 0-1 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Al Hilal Omdurman(away) | 0-2 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Police(home) | 2-1 | Shield Cup |
| May 31, 2026 | APS Bomet(home) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Al Hilal Port Sudan(away) | 2-2 | Sudani Premier League |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Umm Mughad(home) | 3-1 | Sudani Premier League |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Al-Hilal Omdurman II(away) | 0-2 | Sudani Premier League |
| May 29, 2026 | Hay Al Wadi(home) | 3-3 | Sudani Premier League |
| May 24, 2026 | Al Fallah(home) | 2-0 | Sudani Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Tusker score 0.7 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Al Ahli Wad Medani score 2.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tusker | 0.7 | 0.7 | 6 | 3/15 | 2/15 |
| Al Ahli Wad Medani | 2.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tusker vs Al Ahli Wad Medani?
- The Footlab model makes Tusker the favourite at 45%, against 30% for a draw and 25% for Al Ahli Wad Medani.
- Where and when is Tusker vs Al Ahli Wad Medani played?
- Tusker vs Al Ahli Wad Medani is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Ruaraka Stadium, in the CAF Confederation Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.