Tusker vs Mathare United: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 18Kick-off on January 9, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Ruaraka Stadium, Nairobi
The Footlab AI model makes Tusker the favourite at 42%, against 34% for a draw and 24% for Mathare United. The most likely score is 0-0. If Tusker wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tusker vs Mathare United?
Tusker starts as the favourite with a 100-point Elo edge (1,559 vs 1,459).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Tusker vs Mathare United
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Tusker
Not enough data to predict the Tusker lineup.
Mathare United
Not enough data to predict the Mathare United lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 01:14 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tusker have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Mathare United have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(away) | 2-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Al Ahli Wad Medani(home) | 1-0 | CAF Confederation Cup |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Al Ahli Wad Medani(away) | 2-2 | CAF Confederation Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | KVZ(home) | 2-0 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Rayon Sports(home) | 0-1 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | APS Bomet(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 31, 2026 | Bandari(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 23, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mara Sugar(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | APS Bomet(home) | 0-2 | FKF Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Tusker wins, 1 draw, 2 Mathare United wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Mathare United 3-1 Tusker | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Tusker 0-0 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Mathare United 2-1 Tusker | FKF Premier League |
| Dec 7, 2024 | Tusker 2-0 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| Apr 12, 2023 | Mathare United 0-2 Tusker | FKF Premier League |
| Feb 18, 2023 | Tusker 2-1 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Mathare United vs Tusker on Feb 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tusker score 0.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Mathare United score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 27% probability of over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tusker | 0.9 | 0.9 | 5 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
| Mathare United | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tusker sit 2nd in FKF Premier League (3 points from 1 match) and Mathare United sit 11th (1 point from 1 match).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tusker | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Mathare United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
A question about Tusker vs Mathare United?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tusker vs Mathare United?
- The Footlab AI model makes Tusker the favourite at 42%, against 34% for a draw and 24% for Mathare United.
- Where and when is Tusker vs Mathare United played?
- Tusker vs Mathare United is played on January 9, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Ruaraka Stadium, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 27% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.