Mombasa Elite vs GOR Mahia: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueMatchday 18Kick-off on January 9, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Mbaraki Sports Club, Mombasa
The Footlab AI model makes GOR Mahia the favourite at 53%, against 29% for a draw and 18% for Mombasa Elite. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,590 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mombasa Elite vs GOR Mahia?
GOR Mahia is a heavy favourite: 1,686 Elo points against 1,381, a 305-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mombasa Elite vs GOR Mahia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mombasa Elite
Not enough data to predict the Mombasa Elite lineup.
GOR Mahia
4-3-3- 40C. Ochieng Oduor
- 30S. Kapen
- 22B. Ochieng
- 6E. Morrison
- 10A. Otieno
- 26P. Otieno
- 2G. Ochieng
- 5Alphonce Omija
- 15S. Owino
- 19Shariff Sirengo
- 35K. Omondi Onyango
Computed on November 13, 2026 at 02:51 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mombasa Elite have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; GOR Mahia have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Shabana(home) | 2-3 | FKF Premier League |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Migori Youth(away) | 0-2 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | KCB(away) | 1-3 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Kenya Police(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 19, 2026 | Mara Sugar(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Nairobi United(home) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Nov 1, 2026 | KCB(home) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Homeboyz(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Bandari(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | APS Bomet(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Mombasa Elite score 0.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; GOR Mahia score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mombasa Elite | 0.7 | 1.2 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| GOR Mahia | 1.2 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mombasa Elite sit 18th in FKF Premier League (1 point from 6 matches) and GOR Mahia sit 1st (13 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOR Mahia | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 13 |
| 18 | Mombasa Elite | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 1 |
A question about Mombasa Elite vs GOR Mahia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mombasa Elite vs GOR Mahia?
- The Footlab AI model makes GOR Mahia the favourite at 53%, against 29% for a draw and 18% for Mombasa Elite.
- Where and when is Mombasa Elite vs GOR Mahia played?
- Mombasa Elite vs GOR Mahia is played on January 9, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Mbaraki Sports Club, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.