UCAM Murcia II vs Mazarrón FC: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Group 13 - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Mayayo, Sangonera la Verde
The Footlab model makes UCAM Murcia II the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Mazarrón FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win UCAM Murcia II vs Mazarrón FC?
A very open match: only 45 Elo points separate UCAM Murcia II (1,844) and Mazarrón FC (1,799).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, UCAM Murcia II have 6 wins, 8 draws and 1 defeats; Mazarrón FC have 4, 8 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Águilas II(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 3, 2026 | Muleño(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Mazarrón FC(home) | 3-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | El Palmar(away) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Balsicas Atlético(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Real Murcia II(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 16, 2026 | Real Murcia II(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 10, 2026 | Atlético Pulpileño(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 3, 2026 | Águilas II(home) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | UCAM Murcia II(away) | 3-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 UCAM Murcia II win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Mazarrón FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | UCAM Murcia II 3-3 Mazarrón FC | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Mazarrón FC 1-1 UCAM Murcia II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 24, 2022 | Mazarrón FC 0-1 UCAM Murcia II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Dec 12, 2021 | UCAM Murcia II 3-1 Mazarrón FC | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 9, 2021 | UCAM Murcia II 4-1 Mazarrón FC | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 18, 2021 | Mazarrón FC 2-1 UCAM Murcia II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
Last archived meeting: UCAM Murcia II vs Mazarrón FC on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
UCAM Murcia II score 2.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Mazarrón FC score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCAM Murcia II | 2.3 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Mazarrón FC | 1.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
UCAM Murcia II sit 6th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 (55 points from 34 matches) and Mazarrón FC sit 5th (55 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mazarrón FC | 34 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 50 | 33 | 55 |
| 6 | UCAM Murcia II | 34 | 13 | 16 | 5 | 55 | 37 | 55 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for UCAM Murcia II vs Mazarrón FC?
- The Footlab model makes UCAM Murcia II the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Mazarrón FC.
- Where and when is UCAM Murcia II vs Mazarrón FC played?
- UCAM Murcia II vs Mazarrón FC is played on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Mayayo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 13.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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