Where and when is Unión Molinense vs Alcantarilla played?

Unión Molinense vs Alcantarilla is played on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 13.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Unión Molinense vs Alcantarilla: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Group 13 - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas, Molina de Segura

Unión Molinense

Alcantarilla

The Footlab model makes Unión Molinense the favourite at 62%, against 24% for a draw and 15% for Alcantarilla. The most likely score is 1-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Unión Molinense vs Alcantarilla?

Unión Molinense starts as the favourite with a 233-point Elo edge (1,824 vs 1,591).

Unión Molinense win62 %

Draw24 %

Alcantarilla win15 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Unión Molinense have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Alcantarilla have 4, 4 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Unión Molinense
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 24, 2026	Olímpico Totana(home)	0-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 13
May 17, 2026	Olímpico Totana(away)	0-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 13
May 10, 2026	Real Murcia II(away)	2-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 13
May 3, 2026	Yeclano II(home)	2-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 13
Apr 26, 2026	SFC Minerva(away)	0-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 13

Alcantarilla
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 11, 2025	Atlético Pulpileño(away)	0-4	Tercera División RFEF - Group 13
May 4, 2025	Águilas II(home)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 13
Apr 27, 2025	Lorca Deportiva(away)	0-3	Tercera División RFEF - Group 13
Apr 20, 2025	Santomera(home)	1-4	Tercera División RFEF - Group 13
Apr 13, 2025	UCAM Murcia II(away)	0-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 13

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Unión Molinense win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Alcantarilla win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Feb 23, 2025	Unión Molinense 3-0 Alcantarilla	Tercera División RFEF - Group 13
Oct 13, 2024	Alcantarilla 1-1 Unión Molinense	Tercera División RFEF - Group 13
Feb 4, 2024	Unión Molinense 3-0 Alcantarilla	Tercera División RFEF - Group 13
Sep 16, 2023	Alcantarilla 1-0 Unión Molinense	Tercera División RFEF - Group 13
Apr 23, 2023	Unión Molinense 7-0 Alcantarilla	Tercera División RFEF - Group 13
Dec 18, 2022	Alcantarilla 1-2 Unión Molinense	Tercera División RFEF - Group 13

Last archived meeting: Unión Molinense vs Alcantarilla on Feb 23, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Unión Molinense score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Alcantarilla score 0.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Unión Molinense	1.3	0.9	6	6/15	4/15
Alcantarilla	0.5	1.6	6	4/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
3	Unión Molinense	34	17	8	9	46	34	59

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Unión Molinense vs Alcantarilla?: The Footlab model makes Unión Molinense the favourite at 62%, against 24% for a draw and 15% for Alcantarilla.
Where and when is Unión Molinense vs Alcantarilla played?: Unión Molinense vs Alcantarilla is played on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 13.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.