Ucam Murcia vs Peña Deportiva: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 18Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio BeSoccer La Condomina, Murcia
The Footlab model makes Ucam Murcia the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Peña Deportiva. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ucam Murcia vs Peña Deportiva?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate Ucam Murcia (1,911) and Peña Deportiva (1,928).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ucam Murcia have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Peña Deportiva have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Xerez(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Real Jaén(home) | 1-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | La Unión Atlético(away) | 1-4 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Málaga II(home) | 4-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Deportiva Minera(away) | 0-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ibiza(away) | 0-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Arenas Armilla(home) | 5-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Arenas Armilla(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Manacor(away) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| May 30, 2026 | Manacor(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Ucam Murcia win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Peña Deportiva win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 28, 2023 | Peña Deportiva 0-2 Ucam Murcia | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 21, 2023 | Ucam Murcia 0-1 Peña Deportiva | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
Last archived meeting: Peña Deportiva vs Ucam Murcia on May 28, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Ucam Murcia score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Peña Deportiva score 2.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ucam Murcia | 1.3 | 1.4 | 2 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Peña Deportiva | 2.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Peña Deportiva | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 34 | 42 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ucam Murcia vs Peña Deportiva?
- The Footlab model makes Ucam Murcia the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Peña Deportiva.
- Where and when is Ucam Murcia vs Peña Deportiva played?
- Ucam Murcia vs Peña Deportiva is played on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio BeSoccer La Condomina, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.