UCD vs Finn Harps: prediction and stats
First DivisionRegular Season - 29Kick-off on August 28, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)UCD Bowl, Dublin
The Footlab model makes UCD the favourite at 82%, against 13% for a draw and 5% for Finn Harps. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win UCD vs Finn Harps?
UCD starts as the favourite with a 219-point Elo edge (1,408 vs 1,189).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, UCD have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Finn Harps have 2, 2 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Kerry(away) | 1-1 | First Division |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Derry City(home) | 1-2 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Wexford(home) | 4-1 | First Division |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Treaty United(home) | 1-2 | First Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Athlone Town(away) | 0-0 | First Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cobh Ramblers(home) | 1-3 | First Division |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Bray Wanderers(away) | 0-5 | First Division |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Longford Town(away) | 0-5 | First Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Cork City(home) | 0-3 | First Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Kerry(away) | 1-2 | First Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 UCD win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Finn Harps win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | Finn Harps 0-5 UCD | First Division |
| Apr 17, 2026 | UCD 2-1 Finn Harps | First Division |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Finn Harps 2-1 UCD | First Division |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Finn Harps 3-4 UCD | First Division |
| Jul 18, 2025 | Finn Harps 3-0 UCD | FAI Cup |
| Jul 11, 2025 | UCD 3-1 Finn Harps | First Division |
How many goals should we expect?
UCD score 1.8 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Finn Harps score 0.5 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCD | 1.8 | 1.6 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Finn Harps | 0.5 | 2.5 | 2 | 5/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
UCD sit 2nd in First Division (33 points from 20 matches) and Finn Harps sit 9th (18 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | UCD | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 33 | 19 | 33 |
| 2 | UCD | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 47 | 33 | 44 |
| 9 | Finn Harps | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 36 | 18 |
| 10 | Finn Harps | 28 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 22 | 56 | 22 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for UCD vs Finn Harps?
- The Footlab model makes UCD the favourite at 82%, against 13% for a draw and 5% for Finn Harps.
- Where and when is UCD vs Finn Harps played?
- UCD vs Finn Harps is played on August 28, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at UCD Bowl, in the First Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.