Kerry vs Treaty United: prediction and stats
First DivisionRegular Season - 29Kick-off on August 28, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Kerry the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 18% for Treaty United. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kerry vs Treaty United?
Kerry starts as the favourite with a 116-point Elo edge (1,428 vs 1,312).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kerry have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Treaty United have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | UCD(home) | 1-1 | First Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sligo Rovers(away) | 0-4 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cork City(away) | 1-3 | First Division |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Cobh Ramblers(home) | 3-0 | First Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Bray Wanderers(away) | 4-0 | First Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cork City(home) | 2-2 | First Division |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cobh Ramblers(away) | 0-2 | First Division |
| Aug 3, 2026 | UCD(away) | 2-1 | First Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Longford Town(home) | 0-1 | First Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Athlone Town(home) | 2-1 | First Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Kerry win(s), 4 draw(s), 2 Treaty United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 3, 2026 | Treaty United 2-1 Kerry | First Division |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Kerry 1-1 Treaty United | First Division |
| Mar 6, 2026 | Treaty United 2-2 Kerry | First Division |
| Jan 13, 2026 | Kerry 2-4 Treaty United | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 26, 2025 | Kerry 1-1 Treaty United | First Division |
| Aug 4, 2025 | Treaty United 1-1 Kerry | First Division |
Last archived meeting: Treaty United vs Kerry on Jul 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Kerry score 1.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Treaty United score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry | 1.6 | 1.4 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Treaty United | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kerry sit 8th in First Division (22 points from 20 matches) and Treaty United sit 10th (16 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Kerry | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 35 | 34 | 36 |
| 8 | Kerry | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 24 | 22 |
| 9 | Treaty United | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 28 | 41 | 30 |
| 10 | Treaty United | 20 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 33 | 16 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kerry vs Treaty United?
- The Footlab model makes Kerry the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 18% for Treaty United.
- Where and when is Kerry vs Treaty United played?
- Kerry vs Treaty United is played on August 28, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC), in the First Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.