UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol': prediction and stats
Persha LigaRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova, Kyiv
The Footlab model makes Yarud Mariupol' the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for UCSA. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol'?
A very open match: only 2 Elo points separate UCSA (1,604) and Yarud Mariupol' (1,602).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, UCSA have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Yarud Mariupol' have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kolos Kovalivka(home) | 0-3 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | SK Poltava(away) | 0-0 | Persha Liga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Nyva Ternopil(home) | 1-0 | Persha Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Oleksandria(home) | 4-4 | Persha Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Polissya II(away) | 2-2 | Persha Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Dinaz Vyshhorod(away) | 6-0 | Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kolos Kovalivka II(home) | 3-1 | Persha Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | SK Poltava(home) | 0-3 | Persha Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk(away) | 0-2 | Persha Liga |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka(home) | 0-1 | Persha Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 UCSA win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Yarud Mariupol' win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2025 | Yarud Mariupol' 1-1 UCSA | Persha Liga |
| Aug 17, 2025 | UCSA 0-0 Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga |
| Oct 14, 2024 | UCSA 3-0 Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga |
| Aug 26, 2024 | Yarud Mariupol' 2-3 UCSA | Persha Liga |
Last archived meeting: Yarud Mariupol' vs UCSA on Nov 30, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
UCSA score 1.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Yarud Mariupol' score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCSA | 1.1 | 1.9 | 3 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Yarud Mariupol' | 1.5 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
UCSA sit 6th in Persha Liga (6 points from 4 matches) and Yarud Mariupol' sit 13th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | UCSA | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| 13 | Yarud Mariupol' | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol'?
- The Footlab model makes Yarud Mariupol' the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for UCSA.
- Where and when is UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol' played?
- UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol' is played on October 10, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova, in the Persha Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.