UD da Serra vs Atlético Malveira: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 6Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo da Portela, Santa Catarina da Serra
The Footlab model makes UD da Serra the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 27% for Atlético Malveira. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win UD da Serra vs Atlético Malveira?
A very open match: only 22 Elo points separate UD da Serra (1,826) and Atlético Malveira (1,803).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, UD da Serra have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Atlético Malveira have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | FC Alverca II(home) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Naval 1893(away) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Samora Correir(away) | 2-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Peniche(home) | 3-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Oliveira Hospital(away) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Fátima(away) | 0-5 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Os Marialvas(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| May 31, 2026 | Oliveira Hospital(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| May 23, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(home) | 0-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| May 17, 2026 | Louletano(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
How many goals should we expect?
UD da Serra score 1.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Atlético Malveira score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UD da Serra | 1.4 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Atlético Malveira | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
UD da Serra sit 2nd in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (6 points from 2 matches) and Atlético Malveira sit 14th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | UD da Serra | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 14 | Atlético Malveira | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for UD da Serra vs Atlético Malveira?
- The Footlab model makes UD da Serra the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 27% for Atlético Malveira.
- Where and when is UD da Serra vs Atlético Malveira played?
- UD da Serra vs Atlético Malveira is played on October 25, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo da Portela, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.