Sertanense vs Fátima: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 6Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo de Jogos Dr. Marques dos Santos, Sertã
The Footlab AI model makes Fátima the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Sertanense. The most likely score is 1-1. If Fátima wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sertanense vs Fátima?
A very open match: only 77 Elo points separate Sertanense (1,787) and Fátima (1,864).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Sertanense vs Fátima
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Sertanense
4-3-3- MM. Emmanuel
- DDiogo Teixeira
- DDavi Barbosa
- 5Tiago Rodrigues
- MMauro Santos
- DDavid Morais
- GGabriel Morais Piçarra
- DDaniel Xavier
- EElvis Landim
- JJoão André Farinha Tomás
- DDaniel Leitão
Fátima
Not enough data to predict the Fátima lineup.
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 08:43 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sertanense have 2 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats; Fátima have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Os Marialvas(away) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 27, 2026 | O Elvas(away) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Atlético Malveira(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Alcains(away) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Mortágua(home) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Nazarenos(home) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Vinhais(home) | 4-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Oliveira Hospital(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Os Marialvas(away) | 0-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Benfica Castelo Branco(home) | 3-1 | Taça de Portugal |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Sertanense wins, 1 draw, 1 Fátima win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2025 | Fátima 1-1 Sertanense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Sertanense 0-1 Fátima | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Feb 24, 2020 | Sertanense 1-0 Fátima | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 5, 2019 | Fátima 0-2 Sertanense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
How many goals should we expect?
Sertanense score 0.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Fátima score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sertanense | 0.7 | 1.1 | 3 | 7/15 | 3/15 |
| Fátima | 1.7 | 1.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sertanense sit 12th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (2 points from 4 matches) and Fátima sit 9th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Fátima | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| 12 | Sertanense | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
A question about Sertanense vs Fátima?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sertanense vs Fátima?
- The Footlab AI model makes Fátima the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Sertanense.
- Where and when is Sertanense vs Fátima played?
- Sertanense vs Fátima is played on October 25, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de Jogos Dr. Marques dos Santos, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.