Sertanense vs Fátima: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 6Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo de Jogos Dr. Marques dos Santos, Sertã
The Footlab model makes Fátima the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Sertanense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sertanense vs Fátima?
A very open match: only 55 Elo points separate Sertanense (1,730) and Fátima (1,785).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sertanense have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Fátima have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Mortágua(home) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | AD Nogueirense(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Benfica Castelo Branco(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Alcains(home) | 3-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Os Marialvas(away) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Atlético Malveira(home) | 5-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | O Elvas(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Benfica Castelo Branco(home) | 4-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Eléctrico(away) | 3-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(home) | 2-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Sertanense win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Fátima win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2025 | Fátima 1-1 Sertanense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Sertanense 0-1 Fátima | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Feb 24, 2020 | Sertanense 1-0 Fátima | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 5, 2019 | Fátima 0-2 Sertanense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
How many goals should we expect?
Sertanense score 0.8 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Fátima score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sertanense | 0.8 | 1.2 | 3 | 7/15 | 3/15 |
| Fátima | 1.5 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sertanense sit 11th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (1 points from 2 matches) and Fátima sit 3rd (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Fátima | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Sertanense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sertanense vs Fátima?
- The Footlab model makes Fátima the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Sertanense.
- Where and when is Sertanense vs Fátima played?
- Sertanense vs Fátima is played on October 25, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de Jogos Dr. Marques dos Santos, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.