Naval 1893 vs Mortágua: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 6Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal José Bento Pessoa, Figueira da Foz
The Footlab AI model makes Naval 1893 the favourite at 46%, against 30% for a draw and 24% for Mortágua. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,796 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Naval 1893 vs Mortágua?
A very open match: only 12 Elo points separate Naval 1893 (1,863) and Mortágua (1,851).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Naval 1893 vs Mortágua
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Naval 1893
Not enough data to predict the Naval 1893 lineup.
Mortágua
4-3-3- 10João Pais
- 45S. Camara
- 27J. Rianco
- 16A. Sena
- 7Artur Simionato
- 23I. Afonso Figueiredo Antunes
- 2H. Lopes
- 39J. Ferrao
- 5C. Silva
- 3T. Pereira
- 55A. Verdade
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 09:45 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Naval 1893 have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Mortágua have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | AD Nogueirense(away) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(home) | 0-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | FC Alverca II(home) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Oliveira Hospital(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 30, 2026 | AD Nogueirense(away) | 3-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Benfica Castelo Branco(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Leça(home) | 0-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | UD da Serra(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Fazendense(home) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 30, 2026 | SC Covilha(away) | 0-0 | Taça de Portugal |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Naval 1893 win, 1 draw, 0 Mortágua wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Naval 1893 2-0 Mortágua | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Mortágua 2-2 Naval 1893 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
Last archived meeting: Naval 1893 vs Mortágua on Mar 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Naval 1893 score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Mortágua score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naval 1893 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Mortágua | 0.9 | 1.1 | 2 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Naval 1893 sit 6th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (6 points from 4 matches) and Mortágua sit 1st (10 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mortágua | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | Naval 1893 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
A question about Naval 1893 vs Mortágua?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Naval 1893 vs Mortágua?
- The Footlab AI model makes Naval 1893 the favourite at 46%, against 30% for a draw and 24% for Mortágua.
- Where and when is Naval 1893 vs Mortágua played?
- Naval 1893 vs Mortágua is played on October 25, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal José Bento Pessoa, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.