UD Santa Marta vs Mirandés II: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Group 8 - 24Kick-off on February 28, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto, Santa Marta de Tormes
The Footlab model makes UD Santa Marta the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Mirandés II. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win UD Santa Marta vs Mirandés II?
A very open match: only 50 Elo points separate UD Santa Marta (1,807) and Mirandés II (1,757).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, UD Santa Marta have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Mirandés II have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Atlético Tordesillas(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 24, 2026 | Guijuelo(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| May 16, 2026 | Guijuelo(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| May 10, 2026 | Almazán(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| May 2, 2026 | Palencia CF(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Villaralbo(home) | 4-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| May 2, 2026 | Arandina(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Colegios Diocesanos(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Bembibre(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Unionistas II(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 UD Santa Marta win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Mirandés II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2026 | Mirandés II 2-3 UD Santa Marta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Nov 22, 2025 | UD Santa Marta 0-2 Mirandés II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UD Santa Marta 1-1 Mirandés II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Mirandés II 0-2 UD Santa Marta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Apr 7, 2024 | UD Santa Marta 1-1 Mirandés II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Nov 18, 2023 | Mirandés II 0-1 UD Santa Marta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
Last archived meeting: Mirandés II vs UD Santa Marta on Apr 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
UD Santa Marta score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Mirandés II score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UD Santa Marta | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
| Mirandés II | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
UD Santa Marta sit 5th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 (62 points from 34 matches) and Mirandés II sit 8th (47 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | UD Santa Marta | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 53 | 31 | 62 |
| 8 | Mirandés II | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 43 | 35 | 47 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for UD Santa Marta vs Mirandés II?
- The Footlab model makes UD Santa Marta the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Mirandés II.
- Where and when is UD Santa Marta vs Mirandés II played?
- UD Santa Marta vs Mirandés II is played on February 28, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Feb 28, 2027ArandinavsBembibre
- Feb 28, 2027Burgos PromesasvsAlmazán
- Feb 28, 2027Cultural Leonesa IIvsSalamanca II
- Feb 28, 2027La Virgen del CaminovsGuijuelo
- Feb 28, 2027Colegios DiocesanosvsTurégano
- Feb 28, 2027Palencia CFvsCalasanz de Soria
- Feb 28, 2027VillaralbovsCristo Atlético
- Feb 28, 2027Unionistas IIvsAtlético Mansillés