Where and when is Almazán vs UD Santa Marta played?

Almazán vs UD Santa Marta is played on March 7, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de la Arboleda, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Almazán vs UD Santa Marta: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Group 8 - 25Kick-off on March 7, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de la Arboleda, Almazán

Almazán

UD Santa Marta

The Footlab model makes Almazán the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for UD Santa Marta. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Almazán vs UD Santa Marta?

A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate Almazán (1,765) and UD Santa Marta (1,807).

Almazán win43 %

Draw27 %

UD Santa Marta win30 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Almazán have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; UD Santa Marta have 5, 6 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Almazán
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	UD Santa Marta(home)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 1, 2026	La Virgen del Camino(away)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 26, 2026	Atlético Mansillés(home)	0-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 23, 2026	Atlético Mansillés(away)	0-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 19, 2026	Atlético Tordesillas(away)	0-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

UD Santa Marta
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 8, 2026	Atlético Tordesillas(away)	1-1	Friendlies Clubs
May 24, 2026	Guijuelo(away)	0-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 16, 2026	Guijuelo(home)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 10, 2026	Almazán(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 2, 2026	Palencia CF(home)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Almazán win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 UD Santa Marta win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	Almazán 1-1 UD Santa Marta	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Jan 10, 2026	UD Santa Marta 3-2 Almazán	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Jan 19, 2025	Almazán 1-1 UD Santa Marta	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Sep 7, 2024	UD Santa Marta 0-0 Almazán	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Jan 28, 2024	Almazán 1-0 UD Santa Marta	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Sep 9, 2023	UD Santa Marta 2-0 Almazán	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

Last archived meeting: Almazán vs UD Santa Marta on May 10, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Almazán score 1.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; UD Santa Marta score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Almazán	1.7	0.9	4	7/15	7/15
UD Santa Marta	1.5	1.3	2	11/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Almazán sit 7th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 (48 points from 34 matches) and UD Santa Marta sit 5th (62 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
5	UD Santa Marta	34	18	8	8	53	31	62
7	Almazán	34	12	12	10	49	38	48

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Almazán vs UD Santa Marta?: The Footlab model makes Almazán the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for UD Santa Marta.
Where and when is Almazán vs UD Santa Marta played?: Almazán vs UD Santa Marta is played on March 7, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de la Arboleda, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.