Udinese vs Cagliari: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Bluenergy Stadium, Udine
The Footlab model makes Udinese the favourite at 44%, against 29% for a draw and 27% for Cagliari. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Udinese vs Cagliari?
A very open match: only 58 Elo points separate Udinese (2,063) and Cagliari (2,005).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Udinese have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Cagliari have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Padova(home) | 1-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Barcelona(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Trabzonspor(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FSV Mainz 05(home) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Arezzo(home) | 1-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Nice(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Union Berlin(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Modena(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Sampdoria(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Udinese win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Cagliari win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Cagliari 0-2 Udinese | Serie A |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Udinese 1-1 Cagliari | Serie A |
| May 3, 2025 | Cagliari 1-2 Udinese | Serie A |
| Oct 25, 2024 | Udinese 2-0 Cagliari | Serie A |
| Feb 18, 2024 | Udinese 1-1 Cagliari | Serie A |
| Nov 1, 2023 | Udinese 1-2 Cagliari | Coppa Italia |
How many goals should we expect?
Udinese score 1.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Cagliari score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese | 1.1 | 0.9 | 7 | 3/15 | 4/15 |
| Cagliari | 0.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Udinese sit 10th in Serie A (50 points from 38 matches) and Cagliari sit 14th (43 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Udinese | 38 | 14 | 8 | 16 | 45 | 48 | 50 |
| 14 | Cagliari | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 40 | 53 | 43 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Udinese vs Cagliari?
- The Footlab model makes Udinese the favourite at 44%, against 29% for a draw and 27% for Cagliari.
- Where and when is Udinese vs Cagliari played?
- Udinese vs Cagliari is played on September 20, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Bluenergy Stadium, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.