Ulfstind vs Tromso: prediction and stats
NM CupenRound 1Kick-off on August 22, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)TUIL Arena, Tromsø
The Footlab model makes Tromso the favourite at 93%, against 5% for a draw and 2% for Ulfstind. The most likely score is 0-4.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ulfstind vs Tromso?
Tromso is a heavy favourite: 2,066 Elo points against 1,508 — a 558-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ulfstind have 4 wins, 1 draws and 10 defeats; Tromso have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Skjetten(home) | 4-2 | 3. Division - Girone 5 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Fløya(away) | 0-7 | 3. Division - Girone 5 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Skjervøy(home) | 1-3 | 3. Division - Girone 5 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Tromsø II(away) | 3-1 | 3. Division - Girone 5 |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Harstad(home) | 1-1 | 3. Division - Girone 5 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Brighton(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Molde(away) | 2-3 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 13, 2026 | CFR 1907 Cluj(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | CFR 1907 Cluj(away) | 5-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Aalesund(away) | 6-2 | Eliteserien |
How many goals should we expect?
Ulfstind score 1.8 and concede 3.3 goals per match over their last 15; Tromso score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 87% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ulfstind | 1.8 | 3.3 | 1 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
| Tromso | 1.9 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ulfstind vs Tromso?
- The Footlab model makes Tromso the favourite at 93%, against 5% for a draw and 2% for Ulfstind.
- Where and when is Ulfstind vs Tromso played?
- Ulfstind vs Tromso is played on August 22, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at TUIL Arena, in the NM Cupen.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 87% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.