Tusker vs Nairobi United: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 33Kick-off on May 9, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Ruaraka Stadium, Nairobi
The Footlab AI model makes Tusker the favourite at 35%, against 33% for a draw and 32% for Nairobi United. The most likely score is 0-0. If Tusker wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,824 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 29, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tusker vs Nairobi United?
A very open match: only 23 Elo points separate Tusker (1,562) and Nairobi United (1,539).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Tusker vs Nairobi United
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Tusker
Not enough data to predict the Tusker lineup.
Nairobi United
4-3-3- 33B. Ochieng
- 5S. Mwinyi
- 10H. Muhadjiri
- 29D. Odhiambo
- 24L. Owino
- 26B. Mzee
- 34L. Ogutu
- 2Y. Mainge
- 12K. Otiende
- 4J. Otieno
- 32K. Oduor
Computed on October 29, 2026 at 02:50 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tusker have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Nairobi United have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2026 | Mathare United(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(away) | 1-1 | CAF Confederation Cup |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(home) | 0-1 | CAF Confederation Cup |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(away) | 2-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Al Ahli Wad Medani(home) | 1-0 | CAF Confederation Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | Murang'a SEAL(away) | 2-3 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 25, 2026 | APS Bomet(home) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Shabana(away) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | KCB(home) | 2-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 31, 2026 | GOR Mahia(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Tusker wins, 1 draw, 2 Nairobi United wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2026 | Nairobi United 1-0 Tusker | FKF Premier League |
| Dec 17, 2025 | Tusker 0-1 Nairobi United | FKF Premier League |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Nairobi United 1-1 Tusker | Shield Cup |
Last archived meeting: Nairobi United vs Tusker on May 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tusker score 0.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Nairobi United score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 30% probability of over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tusker | 0.9 | 0.9 | 5 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
| Nairobi United | 1.5 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tusker sit 11th in FKF Premier League (3 points from 1 match) and Nairobi United sit 12th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Tusker | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Nairobi United | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
A question about Tusker vs Nairobi United?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tusker vs Nairobi United?
- The Footlab AI model makes Tusker the favourite at 35%, against 33% for a draw and 32% for Nairobi United.
- Where and when is Tusker vs Nairobi United played?
- Tusker vs Nairobi United is played on May 9, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Ruaraka Stadium, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 30% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.