Umeå FC vs Assyriska FF: prediction and stats
Ettan - NorraNorra - 27Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Umeå Energi Arena SOL, Umeå
The Footlab model makes Assyriska FF the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Umeå FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Umeå FC vs Assyriska FF?
A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate Umeå FC (1,520) and Assyriska FF (1,602).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Umeå FC have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Assyriska FF have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Enköping(home) | 0-0 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Gefle IF(away) | 0-2 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 9, 2026 | AFC Eskilstuna(home) | 1-3 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 2, 2026 | AFC Eskilstuna(away) | 0-1 | Ettan - Norra |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Täfteå(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Gefle IF(home) | 1-2 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 15, 2026 | IF Karlstad(away) | 2-0 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Sollentuna(home) | 3-0 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FBK Karlstad(away) | 2-0 | Ettan - Norra |
| Jul 19, 2026 | AFC Eskilstuna(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Umeå FC win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Assyriska FF win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 14, 2026 | Assyriska FF 1-5 Umeå FC | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 4, 2024 | Umeå FC 3-1 Assyriska FF | Ettan - Norra |
| Jun 30, 2024 | Assyriska FF 1-2 Umeå FC | Ettan - Norra |
| Nov 14, 2021 | Assyriska FF 2-1 Umeå FC | Ettan - Norra |
| May 23, 2021 | Umeå FC 2-1 Assyriska FF | Ettan - Norra |
| Oct 14, 2018 | Umeå FC 3-1 Assyriska FF | Ettan - Norra |
Last archived meeting: Assyriska FF vs Umeå FC on May 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Umeå FC score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Assyriska FF score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umeå FC | 1.3 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Assyriska FF | 1.5 | 1.7 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Umeå FC sit 13th in Ettan - Norra (17 points from 18 matches) and Assyriska FF sit 9th (23 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Assyriska FF | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 30 | 31 | 23 |
| 13 | Umeå FC | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 30 | 17 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Umeå FC vs Assyriska FF?
- The Footlab model makes Assyriska FF the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Umeå FC.
- Where and when is Umeå FC vs Assyriska FF played?
- Umeå FC vs Assyriska FF is played on October 18, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Umeå Energi Arena SOL, in the Ettan - Norra.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.