UPDF vs BUL: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 5Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Bombo Stadium, Bombo
The Footlab AI model makes BUL the favourite at 37%, against 32% for a draw and 31% for UPDF. The most likely score is 1-1. If BUL wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win UPDF vs BUL?
BUL starts as the favourite with a 159-point Elo edge (1,476 vs 1,317).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for UPDF vs BUL
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
UPDF
Not enough data to predict the UPDF lineup.
BUL
Not enough data to predict the BUL lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 12:52 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, UPDF have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; BUL have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2026 | Maroons(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Police(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Entebbe UPPC(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Kataka(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| May 23, 2026 | SC Villa(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Lugazi(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Blacks Power(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Ntugasaze(home) | 4-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Kataka(away) | 4-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Express(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 UPDF wins, 0 draws, 2 BUL wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2026 | BUL 2-5 UPDF | Premier League |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UPDF 0-1 BUL | Premier League |
| May 24, 2025 | UPDF 2-3 BUL | Premier League |
| Dec 4, 2024 | BUL 0-2 UPDF | Premier League |
| Mar 12, 2024 | BUL 0-1 UPDF | Premier League |
| Nov 9, 2023 | UPDF 2-0 BUL | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
UPDF score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; BUL score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 33% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPDF | 0.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| BUL | 1.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
UPDF sit 12th in Premier League (5 points from 4 matches) and BUL sit 1st (12 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUL | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 12 |
| 12 | UPDF | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
A question about UPDF vs BUL?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for UPDF vs BUL?
- The Footlab AI model makes BUL the favourite at 37%, against 32% for a draw and 31% for UPDF.
- Where and when is UPDF vs BUL played?
- UPDF vs BUL is played on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Bombo Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 33% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.