USM Alger vs MC Alger: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 11Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade du 5 Juillet 1962, Algiers
The Footlab model makes USM Alger the favourite at 35%, against 32% for a draw and 33% for MC Alger. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win USM Alger vs MC Alger?
A very open match: only 91 Elo points separate USM Alger (1,914) and MC Alger (2,006).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, USM Alger have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; MC Alger have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | MC Oran(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Ben Aknoun(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Jun 2, 2026 | CR Belouizdad(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 1 |
| May 30, 2026 | MB Rouisset(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| May 25, 2026 | Khenchela(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 3, 2026 | Al Shabab(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Mamelodi Sundowns(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 5, 2026 | ASO Chlef(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 20, 2026 | ES Setif(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 USM Alger win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 MC Alger win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2026 | MC Alger 1-0 USM Alger | Ligue 1 |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MC Alger 1-0 USM Alger | Super Cup |
| Aug 31, 2025 | USM Alger 0-0 MC Alger | Ligue 1 |
| May 23, 2025 | MC Alger 1-0 USM Alger | Ligue 1 |
| Jan 24, 2025 | USM Alger 0-3 MC Alger | Ligue 1 |
| May 17, 2024 | MC Alger 1-0 USM Alger | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
USM Alger score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; MC Alger score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USM Alger | 1.3 | 1.1 | 3 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| MC Alger | 1.5 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
USM Alger sit 10th in Ligue 1 (39 points from 30 matches) and MC Alger sit 1st (65 points from 30 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MC Alger | 30 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 41 | 18 | 65 |
| 10 | USM Alger | 30 | 8 | 15 | 7 | 34 | 29 | 39 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for USM Alger vs MC Alger?
- The Footlab model makes USM Alger the favourite at 35%, against 32% for a draw and 33% for MC Alger.
- Where and when is USM Alger vs MC Alger played?
- USM Alger vs MC Alger is played on November 7, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade du 5 Juillet 1962, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.