Ustrem Donchevo vs Volov Shumen: prediction and stats
Third League - NortheastNortheast - 5Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Donchevo, Donchevo
The Footlab model makes Volov Shumen the favourite at 74%, against 15% for a draw and 11% for Ustrem Donchevo. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ustrem Donchevo vs Volov Shumen?
Volov Shumen starts as the favourite with a 154-point Elo edge (1,595 vs 1,441).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ustrem Donchevo have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Volov Shumen have 12, 2 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Olympic Varna(home) | 3-4 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Riltzi(away) | 4-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 23, 2026 | Benkovski Isperih(home) | 3-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Chernolomets 1919(away) | 0-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Svetkavitsa Targovishte(home) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Septemvri Tervel(away) | 1-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Fratria II(away) | 7-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 23, 2026 | Riltzi(home) | 9-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 17, 2026 | Benkovski Isperih(away) | 2-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Chernolomets 1919(home) | 5-0 | Third League - Northeast |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Ustrem Donchevo win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Volov Shumen win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2026 | Ustrem Donchevo 0-6 Volov Shumen | Third League - Northeast |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Volov Shumen 4-3 Ustrem Donchevo | Third League - Northeast |
| Apr 30, 2023 | Ustrem Donchevo 4-1 Volov Shumen | Third League - Northeast |
| Oct 23, 2022 | Volov Shumen 4-0 Ustrem Donchevo | Third League - Northeast |
| May 28, 2022 | Volov Shumen 2-4 Ustrem Donchevo | Third League - Northeast |
| Dec 5, 2021 | Ustrem Donchevo 0-0 Volov Shumen | Third League - Northeast |
Last archived meeting: Ustrem Donchevo vs Volov Shumen on Apr 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ustrem Donchevo score 1.9 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Volov Shumen score 3.3 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 76% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ustrem Donchevo | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
| Volov Shumen | 3.3 | 0.5 | 10 | 4/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ustrem Donchevo sit 11th in Third League - Northeast (0 points from 1 matches) and Volov Shumen sit 8th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Volov Shumen | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Ustrem Donchevo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ustrem Donchevo vs Volov Shumen?
- The Footlab model makes Volov Shumen the favourite at 74%, against 15% for a draw and 11% for Ustrem Donchevo.
- Where and when is Ustrem Donchevo vs Volov Shumen played?
- Ustrem Donchevo vs Volov Shumen is played on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Donchevo, in the Third League - Northeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 76% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.