Ustrem Donchevo vs Chernolomets 1919: prediction and stats
Third League - NortheastNortheast - 14Kick-off on November 14, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Donchevo, Donchevo
The Footlab model makes Chernolomets 1919 the favourite at 58%, against 19% for a draw and 23% for Ustrem Donchevo. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ustrem Donchevo vs Chernolomets 1919?
Chernolomets 1919 starts as the favourite with a 188-point Elo edge (1,629 vs 1,441).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ustrem Donchevo have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Chernolomets 1919 have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Olympic Varna(home) | 3-4 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Riltzi(away) | 4-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 23, 2026 | Benkovski Isperih(home) | 3-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Chernolomets 1919(away) | 0-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Svetkavitsa Targovishte(home) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Chernomorets Balchik(home) | 0-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Dorostol(home) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 24, 2026 | Ludogorets III(away) | 1-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Ustrem Donchevo(home) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Volov Shumen(away) | 0-5 | Third League - Northeast |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Ustrem Donchevo win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Chernolomets 1919 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Chernolomets 1919 3-0 Ustrem Donchevo | Third League - Northeast |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Ustrem Donchevo 2-1 Chernolomets 1919 | Third League - Northeast |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Chernolomets 1919 5-1 Ustrem Donchevo | Third League - Northeast |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Ustrem Donchevo 1-1 Chernolomets 1919 | Third League - Northeast |
| Mar 3, 2024 | Chernolomets 1919 5-0 Ustrem Donchevo | Third League - Northeast |
| Aug 20, 2023 | Ustrem Donchevo 1-2 Chernolomets 1919 | Third League - Northeast |
Last archived meeting: Chernolomets 1919 vs Ustrem Donchevo on May 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ustrem Donchevo score 1.9 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Chernolomets 1919 score 2.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 79% probability of over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ustrem Donchevo | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
| Chernolomets 1919 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 6 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ustrem Donchevo sit 11th in Third League - Northeast (0 points from 1 matches) and Chernolomets 1919 sit 9th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Chernolomets 1919 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Ustrem Donchevo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ustrem Donchevo vs Chernolomets 1919?
- The Footlab model makes Chernolomets 1919 the favourite at 58%, against 19% for a draw and 23% for Ustrem Donchevo.
- Where and when is Ustrem Donchevo vs Chernolomets 1919 played?
- Ustrem Donchevo vs Chernolomets 1919 is played on November 14, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Donchevo, in the Third League - Northeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 79% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.