Vaprus vs Trans Narva: prediction and stats
MeistriliigaRegular Season - 30Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC)Pärnu Rannastaadion, Pärnu
The Footlab model makes Vaprus the favourite at 67%, against 20% for a draw and 12% for Trans Narva. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vaprus vs Trans Narva?
A very open match: only 91 Elo points separate Vaprus (1,574) and Trans Narva (1,483).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vaprus have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Trans Narva have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Flora Tallinn(home) | 1-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kalju Nomme(away) | 1-3 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Phoenix(away) | 5-0 | Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(home) | 1-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Tabasalu Ulasabat(away) | 4-1 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(away) | 0-4 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Paide(home) | 1-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Kompanii Marjamaa(home) | 8-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kalju Nomme(home) | 0-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Nõmme United(away) | 2-1 | Meistriliiga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Vaprus win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Trans Narva win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | Trans Narva 3-1 Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| May 9, 2026 | Vaprus 2-0 Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Trans Narva 2-1 Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| Feb 15, 2026 | Vaprus 0-2 Trans Narva | Friendlies Clubs |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Trans Narva 1-1 Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| Jul 12, 2025 | Vaprus 0-0 Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
Last archived meeting: Trans Narva vs Vaprus on Jul 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Vaprus score 1.9 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Trans Narva score 1.8 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vaprus | 1.9 | 1.6 | 4 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Trans Narva | 1.8 | 1.4 | 5 | 5/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vaprus sit 7th in Meistriliiga (27 points from 23 matches) and Trans Narva sit 10th (17 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Vaprus | 23 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 31 | 44 | 27 |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 24 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 18 | 55 | 17 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vaprus vs Trans Narva?
- The Footlab model makes Vaprus the favourite at 67%, against 20% for a draw and 12% for Trans Narva.
- Where and when is Vaprus vs Trans Narva played?
- Vaprus vs Trans Narva is played on October 10, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at Pärnu Rannastaadion, in the Meistriliiga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.