Vard vs Fana: prediction and stats
3. Division - Girone 3Regular Season - 21Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Sakkestad gras, Haugesund
The Footlab model makes Vard the favourite at 42%, against 21% for a draw and 37% for Fana. The most likely score is 2-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vard vs Fana?
A very open match: only 61 Elo points separate Vard (1,627) and Fana (1,688).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vard have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Fana have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Haugesund(home) | 3-4 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Austevoll(away) | 1-2 | 3. Division - Girone 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Djerv(home) | 1-3 | 3. Division - Girone 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Gneist(away) | 1-2 | 3. Division - Girone 3 |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Sogndal II(home) | 4-4 | 3. Division - Girone 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bjarg(home) | 1-3 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sogndal II(away) | 3-1 | 3. Division - Girone 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gneist(home) | 4-0 | 3. Division - Girone 3 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Varegg(away) | 2-4 | 3. Division - Girone 3 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Djerv(home) | 4-3 | 3. Division - Girone 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Vard win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Fana win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Fana 1-2 Vard | 3. Division - Girone 3 |
| Jan 27, 2024 | Vard 4-1 Fana | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Vard score 2.0 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Fana score 2.5 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 80% probability of over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vard | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| Fana | 2.5 | 2.1 | 4 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vard sit 6th in 3. Division - Girone 3 (25 points from 16 matches) and Fana sit 5th (25 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Fana | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 41 | 33 | 25 |
| 6 | Vard | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 34 | 30 | 25 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vard vs Fana?
- The Footlab model makes Vard the favourite at 42%, against 21% for a draw and 37% for Fana.
- Where and when is Vard vs Fana played?
- Vard vs Fana is played on September 26, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Sakkestad gras, in the 3. Division - Girone 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 80% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.