Stord vs Vard: prediction and stats
3. Division - Girone 3Regular Season - 22Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Stord Stadion, Leirvik
The Footlab model makes Stord the favourite at 43%, against 21% for a draw and 36% for Vard. The most likely score is 2-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Stord vs Vard?
A very open match: only 55 Elo points separate Stord (1,572) and Vard (1,627).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stord have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Vard have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Åsane II(home) | 2-2 | 3. Division - Girone 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Os(away) | 2-8 | 3. Division - Girone 3 |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Brann II(away) | 1-1 | 3. Division - Girone 3 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Askøy(home) | 0-4 | 3. Division - Girone 3 |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Sogndal II(away) | 2-0 | 3. Division - Girone 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Haugesund(home) | 3-4 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Austevoll(away) | 1-2 | 3. Division - Girone 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Djerv(home) | 1-3 | 3. Division - Girone 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Gneist(away) | 1-2 | 3. Division - Girone 3 |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Sogndal II(home) | 4-4 | 3. Division - Girone 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Stord win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Vard win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | Vard 4-1 Stord | 3. Division - Girone 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Stord score 1.8 and concede 2.7 goals per match over their last 15; Vard score 2.0 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 79% probability of over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stord | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Vard | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Stord sit 10th in 3. Division - Girone 3 (16 points from 16 matches) and Vard sit 6th (25 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Vard | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 34 | 30 | 25 |
| 10 | Stord | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 28 | 43 | 16 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Stord vs Vard?
- The Footlab model makes Stord the favourite at 43%, against 21% for a draw and 36% for Vard.
- Where and when is Stord vs Vard played?
- Stord vs Vard is played on October 3, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Stord Stadion, in the 3. Division - Girone 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 79% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.