Varea vs Cenicero: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Group 16 - 18Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Varea, Varea
The Footlab AI model makes Varea the favourite at 65%, against 23% for a draw and 12% for Cenicero. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,440 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Varea vs Cenicero?
Varea is a heavy favourite: 1,865 Elo points against 1,531, a 334-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Varea vs Cenicero
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Varea
Not enough data to predict the Varea lineup.
Cenicero
4-3-3- MMiguel Viciana Pozo
- PPedro Henrique Rodrigues dos Santos
- AAly Thiam
- AAlvaro Juarez
- AAlvaro Armenteros Delfin
- AAbdou Camara
- JJorge Ojeda del Rey
- DDaniel Narro Angulo
- JJorge Lazaro
- DDiego Jimenez Nestares
- RRaul Garcia Saez
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 11:52 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Varea have 5 wins, 8 draws and 2 defeats; Cenicero have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Agoncillo(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Oyonesa(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | La Calzada(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Pradejón(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | San Marcial(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | San Marcial(home) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Yagüe(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | River Ebro(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Berceo(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Comillas(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Varea wins, 1 draw, 0 Cenicero wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Cenicero 1-1 Varea | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| May 1, 2022 | Cenicero 0-1 Varea | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Jan 9, 2022 | Varea 5-1 Cenicero | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
How many goals should we expect?
Varea score 0.8 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Cenicero score 0.6 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varea | 0.8 | 0.6 | 7 | 6/15 | 1/15 |
| Cenicero | 0.6 | 2.2 | 3 | 6/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Varea sit 7th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 (10 points from 6 matches) and Cenicero sit 13th (5 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Varea | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 10 |
| 13 | Cenicero | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 5 |
A question about Varea vs Cenicero?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Varea vs Cenicero?
- The Footlab AI model makes Varea the favourite at 65%, against 23% for a draw and 12% for Cenicero.
- Where and when is Varea vs Cenicero played?
- Varea vs Cenicero is played on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Varea, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 16.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.