Varhaug vs Madla: prediction and stats
3. Division - Girone 4Regular Season - 23Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Madla the favourite at 42%, against 21% for a draw and 38% for Varhaug. The most likely score is 2-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Varhaug vs Madla?
A very open match: only 94 Elo points separate Varhaug (1,626) and Madla (1,720).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Varhaug have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Madla have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Stabæk II(home) | 2-0 | 3. Division - Girone 4 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Åkra(away) | 2-1 | 3. Division - Girone 4 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Hinna(home) | 3-5 | 3. Division - Girone 4 |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Haugesund II(away) | 2-2 | 3. Division - Girone 4 |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Odd II(home) | 2-2 | 3. Division - Girone 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Vidar(home) | 3-2 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Viking II(away) | 1-1 | 3. Division - Girone 4 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Vindbjart(home) | 4-3 | 3. Division - Girone 4 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Våg(away) | 3-2 | 3. Division - Girone 4 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Flekkerøy(home) | 5-1 | 3. Division - Girone 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Varhaug win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Madla win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Madla 1-1 Varhaug | 3. Division - Girone 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Varhaug score 1.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Madla score 2.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 81% probability of over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varhaug | 1.9 | 1.5 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Madla | 2.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 12/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Varhaug sit 5th in 3. Division - Girone 4 (26 points from 16 matches) and Madla sit 1st (32 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Madla | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 40 | 24 | 32 |
| 5 | Varhaug | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 23 | 26 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Varhaug vs Madla?
- The Footlab model makes Madla the favourite at 42%, against 21% for a draw and 38% for Varhaug.
- Where and when is Varhaug vs Madla played?
- Varhaug vs Madla is played on October 10, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC), in the 3. Division - Girone 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 81% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.