AD Marco 09 vs Varzim: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 11Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal do Marco de Canaveses, Marco de Canaveses
The Footlab AI model makes AD Marco 09 the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Varzim. The most likely score is 1-1. If AD Marco 09 wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,462 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AD Marco 09 vs Varzim?
A very open match: only 19 Elo points separate AD Marco 09 (1,912) and Varzim (1,931).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for AD Marco 09 vs Varzim
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
AD Marco 09
4-3-3- 8Erivaldo
- 9Ka
- 10L. Garro
- 23João Guilherme
- 18F. Fernandes
- 6Fábio Pacheco
- 4Chicão
- 77R. Barrett
- 82J. Guerrero
- 2Victor Thiago
- 64T. Martins
Varzim
4-3-3- 9Rodrigo Pereira
- 7Pedro Matos
- 11D. Benchi
- 27Martim Boloto
- 55D. Rebelo
- 10M. Moreno Tavares Cunha
- 26Rúben Fernandes
- 19A. Morais Guedes
- 3P. Nuno
- 4Kauã Oliveira
- 49P. Costa
Computed on October 25, 2026 at 08:18 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AD Marco 09 have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Varzim have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Farense(away) | 0-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Leça(away) | 0-2 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Maia Lidador(home) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Guimaraes B(home) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | São João Ver(away) | 0-0 | Liga 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | São João Ver(away) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(away) | 1-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Vianense(home) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Paredes(home) | 0-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Trofense(home) | 5-1 | Taça de Portugal |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 AD Marco 09 wins, 0 draws, 3 Varzim wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Varzim 2-1 AD Marco 09 | Liga 3 |
| Jan 25, 2026 | AD Marco 09 1-3 Varzim | Liga 3 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Varzim 2-1 AD Marco 09 | Liga 3 |
Last archived meeting: Varzim vs AD Marco 09 on Aug 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
AD Marco 09 score 0.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Varzim score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AD Marco 09 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 8 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
| Varzim | 1.5 | 1.2 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AD Marco 09 sit 3rd in Liga 3 (10 points from 6 matches) and Varzim sit 6th (9 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | AD Marco 09 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Varzim | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 9 |
A question about AD Marco 09 vs Varzim?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AD Marco 09 vs Varzim?
- The Footlab AI model makes AD Marco 09 the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Varzim.
- Where and when is AD Marco 09 vs Varzim played?
- AD Marco 09 vs Varzim is played on December 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal do Marco de Canaveses, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.