AD Marco 09 vs Varzim: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 11Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal do Marco de Canaveses, Marco de Canaveses
The Footlab model makes Varzim the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for AD Marco 09. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AD Marco 09 vs Varzim?
A very open match: only 49 Elo points separate AD Marco 09 (1,899) and Varzim (1,948).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AD Marco 09 have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Varzim have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vianense(home) | 2-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Varzim(away) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Pacos Ferreira(home) | 2-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cinfães(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | União de Leiria(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Pacos Ferreira(away) | 4-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | AD Marco 09(home) | 2-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Trofense(away) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Tirsense(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Tondela(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 AD Marco 09 win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Varzim win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Varzim 2-1 AD Marco 09 | Liga 3 |
| Jan 25, 2026 | AD Marco 09 1-3 Varzim | Liga 3 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Varzim 2-1 AD Marco 09 | Liga 3 |
Last archived meeting: Varzim vs AD Marco 09 on Aug 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
AD Marco 09 score 0.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Varzim score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AD Marco 09 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
| Varzim | 1.1 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AD Marco 09 sit 3rd in Liga 3 (6 points from 3 matches) and Varzim sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Varzim | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 3 | AD Marco 09 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AD Marco 09 vs Varzim?
- The Footlab model makes Varzim the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for AD Marco 09.
- Where and when is AD Marco 09 vs Varzim played?
- AD Marco 09 vs Varzim is played on December 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal do Marco de Canaveses, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.