Leça vs Guimaraes B: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 11Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Leça Futebol Clube, Leça da Palmeira
The Footlab model makes Leça the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Guimaraes B. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leça vs Guimaraes B?
A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Leça (1,959) and Guimaraes B (1,948).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leça have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Guimaraes B have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Paredes(away) | 2-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Guimaraes B(away) | 0-2 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | São João Ver(home) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Lusitânia Lourosa(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Fafe(away) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Leça(home) | 2-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Paredes(away) | 1-3 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Chaves(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Amarante(home) | 1-3 | Liga 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Leça win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Guimaraes B win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Guimaraes B 2-0 Leça | Liga 3 |
| Jun 1, 2025 | Guimaraes B 3-4 Leça | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| May 11, 2025 | Leça 1-2 Guimaraes B | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
How many goals should we expect?
Leça score 1.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Guimaraes B score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leça | 1.6 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Guimaraes B | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leça sit 7th in Liga 3 (4 points from 3 matches) and Guimaraes B sit 5th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Guimaraes B | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 7 | Leça | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leça vs Guimaraes B?
- The Footlab model makes Leça the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Guimaraes B.
- Where and when is Leça vs Guimaraes B played?
- Leça vs Guimaraes B is played on December 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Leça Futebol Clube, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.