Ventura County vs Tacoma Defiance: prediction and stats
MLS Next ProGroup StageKick-off on September 13, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)William Rolland Stadium, Thousand Oaks, California
The Footlab model makes Ventura County the favourite at 65%, against 19% for a draw and 16% for Tacoma Defiance. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ventura County vs Tacoma Defiance?
A very open match: only 57 Elo points separate Ventura County (1,698) and Tacoma Defiance (1,641).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ventura County have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Tacoma Defiance have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Portland Timbers II(home) | 2-2 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Houston Dynamo FC II(away) | 2-0 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 1, 2026 | North Texas(home) | 6-1 | MLS Next Pro |
| Jul 26, 2026 | The Town(home) | 3-0 | MLS Next Pro |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Los Angeles FC II(home) | 2-0 | MLS Next Pro |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Sporting KC II(home) | 4-0 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Los Angeles FC II(away) | 3-4 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 9, 2026 | North Texas(away) | 1-3 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Vancouver Whitecaps II(home) | 4-2 | MLS Next Pro |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Colorado Rapids II(home) | 2-1 | MLS Next Pro |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Ventura County win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Tacoma Defiance win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Tacoma Defiance 1-0 Ventura County | MLS Next Pro |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Tacoma Defiance 0-1 Ventura County | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 2, 2025 | Tacoma Defiance 4-6 Ventura County | MLS Next Pro |
| May 3, 2025 | Ventura County 1-2 Tacoma Defiance | MLS Next Pro |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Ventura County 3-2 Tacoma Defiance | MLS Next Pro |
| Oct 21, 2024 | Tacoma Defiance 4-0 Ventura County | MLS Next Pro |
Last archived meeting: Tacoma Defiance vs Ventura County on May 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ventura County score 2.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Tacoma Defiance score 1.8 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ventura County | 2.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Tacoma Defiance | 1.8 | 1.4 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ventura County sit 4th in MLS Next Pro (42 points from 23 matches) and Tacoma Defiance sit 7th (36 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ventura County | 23 | 14 | 0 | 9 | 47 | 30 | 42 |
| 4 | Ventura County | 23 | 14 | 0 | 9 | 47 | 30 | 42 |
| 4 | Ventura County | 22 | 14 | 0 | 8 | 45 | 28 | 41 |
| 4 | Tacoma Defiance | 24 | 12 | 0 | 12 | 37 | 36 | 36 |
| 7 | Tacoma Defiance | 24 | 12 | 0 | 12 | 37 | 36 | 36 |
| 7 | Tacoma Defiance | 23 | 11 | 0 | 12 | 33 | 36 | 33 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ventura County vs Tacoma Defiance?
- The Footlab model makes Ventura County the favourite at 65%, against 19% for a draw and 16% for Tacoma Defiance.
- Where and when is Ventura County vs Tacoma Defiance played?
- Ventura County vs Tacoma Defiance is played on September 13, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at William Rolland Stadium, in the MLS Next Pro.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Feb 28, 2026Inter Miami II1-1Chicago Fire II
- Feb 28, 2026Philadelphia Union II1-0Toronto II
- Feb 28, 2026St. Louis City II4-0Sporting KC II
- Mar 1, 2026Chattanooga1-4Crown Legacy
- Mar 1, 2026Portland Timbers II2-1The Town
- Mar 1, 2026New York RB II4-2Columbus Crew II
- Mar 1, 2026Real Monarchs2-2North Texas
- Mar 1, 2026FC Cincinnati II1-3Connecticut FC