Vfb Marburg vs Baunatal: prediction and stats
Oberliga - HessenHessen - 14Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Stadion an der Gisselberger Straße, Marburg
The Footlab model makes Vfb Marburg the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Baunatal. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vfb Marburg vs Baunatal?
A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate Vfb Marburg (1,753) and Baunatal (1,767).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vfb Marburg have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Baunatal have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | 1960 Hanau(away) | 1-0 | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kassel 2(home) | 1-1 | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Eintracht Stadtallendorf(home) | 2-2 | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Hünfelder SV(away) | 1-0 | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bayern Alzenau(home) | 2-1 | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Unter-Flockenbach(away) | 1-3 | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Darmstadt 98 II(home) | 1-1 | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Kassel(away) | 1-3 | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Gießen(home) | 0-0 | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Hadamar(away) | 1-2 | Oberliga - Hessen |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Vfb Marburg win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Baunatal win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | Vfb Marburg 0-3 Baunatal | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Baunatal 2-2 Vfb Marburg | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Vfb Marburg 0-5 Baunatal | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Baunatal 5-0 Vfb Marburg | Oberliga - Hessen |
| May 25, 2024 | Vfb Marburg 1-1 Baunatal | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Nov 4, 2023 | Baunatal 3-3 Vfb Marburg | Oberliga - Hessen |
Last archived meeting: Vfb Marburg vs Baunatal on Dec 6, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Vfb Marburg score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Baunatal score 1.5 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vfb Marburg | 1.5 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Baunatal | 1.5 | 1.9 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vfb Marburg sit 5th in Oberliga - Hessen (11 points from 5 matches) and Baunatal sit 16th (2 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Vfb Marburg | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| 16 | Baunatal | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vfb Marburg vs Baunatal?
- The Footlab model makes Vfb Marburg the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Baunatal.
- Where and when is Vfb Marburg vs Baunatal played?
- Vfb Marburg vs Baunatal is played on October 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion an der Gisselberger Straße, in the Oberliga - Hessen.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 17, 2026Bayern AlzenauvsTuBa Pohlheim
- Oct 17, 2026Eintracht StadtallendorfvsFC Gießen
- Oct 17, 2026FernwaldvsHadamar
- Oct 17, 2026Hünfelder SVvsFriedberg
- Oct 17, 2026HummetrothvsRot-Weiß Walldorf
- Oct 18, 2026EddersheimvsKassel
- Oct 18, 20261960 HanauvsDarmstadt 98 II
- Oct 18, 2026Kassel 2vsUnter-Flockenbach