Vietnam vs Thailand: prediction and stats
ASEAN ChampionshipFinalKick-off on August 26, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Sân vận động Gò Đậu (Go Dau Stadium), Thủ Dầu Một (Thu Dau Mot)
The Footlab model makes Vietnam the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Thailand. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vietnam vs Thailand?
A very open match: only 38 Elo points separate Vietnam (1,658) and Thailand (1,620).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vietnam have 13 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats; Thailand have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Thailand(away) | 2-0 | ASEAN Championship |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Malaysia(home) | 2-0 | ASEAN Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Malaysia(away) | 2-0 | ASEAN Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cambodia(home) | 3-1 | ASEAN Championship |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Indonesia(away) | 3-0 | ASEAN Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Vietnam(home) | 0-2 | ASEAN Championship |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Singapore(home) | 1-2 | ASEAN Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Singapore(away) | 3-1 | ASEAN Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Myanmar(home) | 2-0 | ASEAN Championship |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Philippines(away) | 1-0 | ASEAN Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Vietnam win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Thailand win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Thailand 0-2 Vietnam | ASEAN Championship |
| Jan 5, 2025 | Thailand 2-3 Vietnam | ASEAN Championship |
| Jan 2, 2025 | Vietnam 2-1 Thailand | ASEAN Championship |
| Sep 10, 2024 | Vietnam 1-2 Thailand | Friendlies |
| Jan 16, 2023 | Thailand 1-0 Vietnam | ASEAN Championship |
| Jan 13, 2023 | Vietnam 2-2 Thailand | ASEAN Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Vietnam score 2.7 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Thailand score 2.2 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | 2.7 | 0.5 | 11 | 3/15 | 9/15 |
| Thailand | 2.2 | 0.8 | 7 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vietnam vs Thailand?
- The Footlab model makes Vietnam the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Thailand.
- Where and when is Vietnam vs Thailand played?
- Vietnam vs Thailand is played on August 26, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Sân vận động Gò Đậu (Go Dau Stadium), in the ASEAN Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.