Qatar vs Thailand: prediction and stats
Asian CupGroup Stage - 1Kick-off on January 11, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Khalifa International Stadium, Al Rayyan (Ar-Rayyan)
The Footlab model makes Thailand the favourite at 36%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Qatar. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Qatar vs Thailand?
A very open match: only 60 Elo points separate Qatar (1,561) and Thailand (1,620).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Qatar have 1 wins, 5 draws and 9 defeats; Thailand have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 24, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina(away) | 1-3 | World Cup |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Canada(away) | 0-6 | World Cup |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Switzerland(home) | 1-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 6, 2026 | El Salvador(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| May 28, 2026 | Rep. Of Ireland(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Vietnam(home) | 0-2 | ASEAN Championship |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Singapore(home) | 1-2 | ASEAN Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Singapore(away) | 3-1 | ASEAN Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Myanmar(home) | 2-0 | ASEAN Championship |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Philippines(away) | 1-0 | ASEAN Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Qatar score 0.6 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Thailand score 2.2 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qatar | 0.6 | 1.9 | 2 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Thailand | 2.2 | 0.8 | 7 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thailand | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 5 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Qatar vs Thailand?
- The Footlab model makes Thailand the favourite at 36%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Qatar.
- Where and when is Qatar vs Thailand played?
- Qatar vs Thailand is played on January 11, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Khalifa International Stadium, in the Asian Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.