Villafranca vs Moralo: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Group 14 - 13Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Villafranca de los Barros, Villafranca de los Barros
The Footlab model makes Moralo the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Villafranca. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Villafranca vs Moralo?
A very open match: only 57 Elo points separate Villafranca (1,821) and Moralo (1,878).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Villafranca have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Moralo have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Diocesano(away) | 4-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 3, 2026 | Jerez(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Don Benito(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Santa Amalia(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Azuaga(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Badajoz(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 31, 2026 | Badajoz(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 23, 2026 | Azuaga(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 17, 2026 | Azuaga(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 10, 2026 | Don Benito(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Villafranca win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Moralo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | Villafranca 0-1 Moralo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 6, 2025 | Moralo 1-1 Villafranca | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Villafranca 1-0 Moralo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Moralo 3-1 Villafranca | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Feb 25, 2024 | Villafranca 0-0 Moralo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 12, 2023 | Moralo 0-1 Villafranca | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
Last archived meeting: Villafranca vs Moralo on Jan 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Villafranca score 1.6 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Moralo score 1.3 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villafranca | 1.6 | 1.0 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Moralo | 1.3 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Villafranca sit 7th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 (55 points from 34 matches) and Moralo sit 3rd (62 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Moralo | 34 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 54 | 32 | 62 |
| 7 | Villafranca | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 45 | 40 | 55 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Villafranca vs Moralo?
- The Footlab model makes Moralo the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Villafranca.
- Where and when is Villafranca vs Moralo played?
- Villafranca vs Moralo is played on November 29, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Villafranca de los Barros, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 14.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.