Jerez vs Llerenense: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Group 14 - 13Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Manuel Calzado Galván, Jerez de los Caballeros
The Footlab model makes Jerez the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Llerenense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Jerez vs Llerenense?
A very open match: only 6 Elo points separate Jerez (1,761) and Llerenense (1,767).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Jerez have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Llerenense have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Montehermoso(home) | 5-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 3, 2026 | Villafranca(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Villanovense(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Don Benito(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Cabeza Buey(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Calamonte(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 1, 2026 | Puebla Calzada(away) | 1-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Jaraíz(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Montehermoso(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Villanovense(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Jerez win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Llerenense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | Llerenense 1-1 Jerez | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Jerez 4-1 Llerenense | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Jan 19, 2025 | Jerez 2-1 Llerenense | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 8, 2024 | Llerenense 2-0 Jerez | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Mar 4, 2023 | Llerenense 1-1 Jerez | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 30, 2022 | Jerez 1-3 Llerenense | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
How many goals should we expect?
Jerez score 1.6 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Llerenense score 1.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerez | 1.6 | 1.8 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Llerenense | 1.1 | 1.7 | 2 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Jerez sit 10th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 (41 points from 34 matches) and Llerenense sit 11th (41 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Jerez | 34 | 8 | 17 | 9 | 56 | 51 | 41 |
| 11 | Llerenense | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 44 | 41 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Jerez vs Llerenense?
- The Footlab model makes Jerez the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Llerenense.
- Where and when is Jerez vs Llerenense played?
- Jerez vs Llerenense is played on November 29, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Manuel Calzado Galván, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 14.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.