Villarreal vs Real Sociedad: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 15Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal
The Footlab model makes Villarreal the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Real Sociedad. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Villarreal vs Real Sociedad?
A very open match: only 77 Elo points separate Villarreal (2,175) and Real Sociedad (2,098).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Villarreal have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Real Sociedad have 2, 6 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(away) | 2-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 2-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Galatasaray(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Levante(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lens(away) | 1-3 | Como Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Real Betis(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | 1. FC Köln(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Toulouse(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Aston Villa(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Villarreal win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Real Sociedad win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | Villarreal 3-1 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Real Sociedad 2-3 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Villarreal 2-2 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Jan 13, 2025 | Real Sociedad 1-0 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Feb 23, 2024 | Real Sociedad 1-3 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Dec 9, 2023 | Villarreal 0-3 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Villarreal vs Real Sociedad on Mar 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Villarreal score 2.0 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Real Sociedad score 1.5 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 2.0 | 1.4 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Real Sociedad | 1.5 | 1.8 | 0 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Villarreal sit 9th in La Liga (2 points from 2 matches) and Real Sociedad sit 19th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Villarreal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| 19 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Villarreal vs Real Sociedad?
- The Footlab model makes Villarreal the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Real Sociedad.
- Where and when is Villarreal vs Real Sociedad played?
- Villarreal vs Real Sociedad is played on December 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de la Cerámica, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.