Athletic Club vs Real Madrid: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 15Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)San Mamés Barria, Bilbao
The Footlab AI model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Athletic Club. The most likely score is 1-1. If Real Madrid wins, the most likely score is 0-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.0% of the 5,337 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 11, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Athletic Club vs Real Madrid?
Real Madrid starts as the favourite with a 294-point Elo edge (2,371 vs 2,077).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Athletic Club vs Real Madrid
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Athletic Club
4-2-3-1- 9I. Williams
- 7Álex Berenguer
- 28Peio Canales
- 10Nico Williams
- 24Beñat Gerenabarrena
- 23Robert Navarro
- 15Hugo Rincón
- 17Yuri
- 14Aymeric Laporte
- 3Dani Vivian
- 1Unai Simón
Real Madrid
4-2-3-1- 10Kylian Mbappé
- 5J. Bellingham
- 25Y. Diomande
- 20Bernardo Silva
- 15A. Güler
- 14A. Tchouaméni
- 17Marc Cucurella
- 16I. Konaté
- 4D. Huijsen
- 8F. Valverde
- 1T. Courtois
Computed on November 11, 2026 at 07:56 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Athletic Club have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Real Madrid have 13, 0 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Osasuna(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Prat(away) | 6-1 | Copa del Rey |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Getafe(home) | 4-0 | La Liga |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Levante(away) | 1-3 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Valencia(away) | 3-0 | La Liga |
| Nov 4, 2026 | AEK Athens FC(away) | 3-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 3-0 | La Liga |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Oct 21, 2026 | RB Leipzig(home) | 4-1 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Athletic Club win, 0 draws, 5 Real Madrid wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Real Madrid 4-2 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Dec 3, 2025 | Athletic Club 0-3 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Real Madrid 1-0 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Dec 4, 2024 | Athletic Club 2-1 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Mar 31, 2024 | Real Madrid 2-0 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Aug 12, 2023 | Athletic Club 0-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Real Madrid vs Athletic Club on May 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Athletic Club score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Real Madrid score 2.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 1.5 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Real Madrid | 2.8 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Athletic Club sit 7th in La Liga (16 points from 11 matches) and Real Madrid sit 2nd (30 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Real Madrid | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 10 | 30 |
| 7 | Athletic Club | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 16 |
A question about Athletic Club vs Real Madrid?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Athletic Club vs Real Madrid?
- The Footlab AI model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Athletic Club.
- Where and when is Athletic Club vs Real Madrid played?
- Athletic Club vs Real Madrid is played on December 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at San Mamés Barria, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.0% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.