Vis Pesaro vs Livorno: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone BGirone B - 36Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Tonino Benelli, Pesaro
The Footlab model makes Vis Pesaro the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Livorno. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vis Pesaro vs Livorno?
A very open match: only 43 Elo points separate Vis Pesaro (1,785) and Livorno (1,828).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vis Pesaro have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Livorno have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Pescara(away) | 0-2 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Perugia(away) | 2-1 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Modena(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Cesena(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Benevento(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Torres(home) | 2-1 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Reggiana(home) | 3-1 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Empoli(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cittadella Vis Modena(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Pontedera(away) | 2-0 | Serie C - Girone B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Vis Pesaro win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Livorno win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | Livorno 2-1 Vis Pesaro | Serie C - Girone B |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Vis Pesaro 3-0 Livorno | Serie C - Girone B |
Last archived meeting: Livorno vs Vis Pesaro on Jan 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Vis Pesaro score 1.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Livorno score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vis Pesaro | 1.0 | 1.7 | 4 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Livorno | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vis Pesaro sit 17th in Serie C - Girone B (0 points from 1 matches) and Livorno sit 5th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Livorno | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 17 | Vis Pesaro | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vis Pesaro vs Livorno?
- The Footlab model makes Vis Pesaro the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Livorno.
- Where and when is Vis Pesaro vs Livorno played?
- Vis Pesaro vs Livorno is played on April 11, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Tonino Benelli, in the Serie C - Girone B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.