Vis Pesaro vs Perugia: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone BGirone B - 2Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Tonino Benelli, Pesaro
The Footlab model makes Vis Pesaro the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Perugia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vis Pesaro vs Perugia?
A very open match: only 34 Elo points separate Vis Pesaro (1,849) and Perugia (1,815).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vis Pesaro have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Perugia have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Perugia(away) | 2-1 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Modena(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Cesena(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Benevento(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Venezia(away) | 0-8 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Vis Pesaro(home) | 1-2 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Forli(away) | 1-1 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Campobasso FC(home) | 0-1 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Ternana(away) | 2-2 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Juventus U23(home) | 2-2 | Serie C - Girone B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Vis Pesaro win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Perugia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Perugia 1-2 Vis Pesaro | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Vis Pesaro 0-1 Perugia | Serie C - Girone B |
| Nov 24, 2025 | Perugia 2-1 Vis Pesaro | Serie C - Girone B |
| Feb 7, 2025 | Perugia 0-1 Vis Pesaro | Serie C - Girone B |
| Sep 30, 2024 | Vis Pesaro 0-0 Perugia | Serie C - Girone B |
| Apr 14, 2024 | Vis Pesaro 1-0 Perugia | Serie C - Girone B |
Last archived meeting: Perugia vs Vis Pesaro on Aug 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Vis Pesaro score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Perugia score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vis Pesaro | 1.1 | 1.7 | 4 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Perugia | 1.1 | 1.1 | 2 | 11/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vis Pesaro sit 10th in Serie C - Girone B (46 points from 36 matches) and Perugia sit 14th (38 points from 36 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Vis Pesaro | 36 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 38 | 36 | 46 |
| 14 | Perugia | 36 | 8 | 14 | 14 | 38 | 44 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vis Pesaro vs Perugia?
- The Footlab model makes Vis Pesaro the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Perugia.
- Where and when is Vis Pesaro vs Perugia played?
- Vis Pesaro vs Perugia is played on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Tonino Benelli, in the Serie C - Girone B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.