Waalwijk vs Jong PSV U21: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 4Kick-off on August 28, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk
The Footlab model makes Waalwijk the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Jong PSV U21. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Waalwijk vs Jong PSV U21?
Waalwijk starts as the favourite with a 225-point Elo edge (1,763 vs 1,538).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Waalwijk have 3 wins, 8 draws and 4 defeats; Jong PSV U21 have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Helmond Sport(away) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Dordrecht(home) | 2-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Vitesse(away) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Kifisia(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Patro Eisden(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Sunderland U21(away) | 1-1 | Premier League International Cup |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Almere City FC(away) | 1-3 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 10, 2026 | FC Volendam(home) | 3-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Jul 18, 2026 | KRC Genk II(home) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Waalwijk(away) | 1-4 | Eerste Divisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Waalwijk win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Jong PSV U21 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | Waalwijk 4-1 Jong PSV U21 | Eerste Divisie |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Jong PSV U21 3-1 Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie |
| Mar 29, 2019 | Jong PSV U21 2-1 Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie |
| Nov 9, 2018 | Waalwijk 3-5 Jong PSV U21 | Eerste Divisie |
| Mar 9, 2018 | Waalwijk 3-2 Jong PSV U21 | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 20, 2017 | Jong PSV U21 3-2 Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie |
Last archived meeting: Waalwijk vs Jong PSV U21 on Apr 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Waalwijk score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Jong PSV U21 score 1.2 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waalwijk | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2 | 11/15 | 6/15 |
| Jong PSV U21 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Waalwijk sit 14th in Eerste Divisie (3 points from 3 matches) and Jong PSV U21 sit 11th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Jong PSV U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 11 | Jong PSV U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 14 | Waalwijk | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | Waalwijk | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Waalwijk vs Jong PSV U21?
- The Footlab model makes Waalwijk the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Jong PSV U21.
- Where and when is Waalwijk vs Jong PSV U21 played?
- Waalwijk vs Jong PSV U21 is played on August 28, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Mandemakers Stadion, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.