Where and when is Xerez vs Ciudad de Lucena played?

Xerez vs Ciudad de Lucena is played on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Chapín, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 4.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Xerez vs Ciudad de Lucena: prediction and stats

Segunda División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 7Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Chapín, Jerez de la Frontera

Xerez

Ciudad de Lucena

The Footlab model makes Xerez the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Ciudad de Lucena. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Xerez vs Ciudad de Lucena?

A very open match: only 22 Elo points separate Xerez (1,927) and Ciudad de Lucena (1,949).

Xerez win42 %

Draw30 %

Ciudad de Lucena win28 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Xerez have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Ciudad de Lucena have 12, 1 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Xerez
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 14, 2026	Portuense(away)	0-0	Friendlies Clubs
May 17, 2026	Conquense(away)	0-0	Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs
May 9, 2026	Conquense(home)	1-1	Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs
May 3, 2026	Ucam Murcia(home)	1-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Apr 26, 2026	Xerez Deportivo(away)	0-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Ciudad de Lucena
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	Dos Hermanas(home)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 10
May 3, 2026	Cádiz II(away)	0-3	Tercera División RFEF - Group 10
Apr 26, 2026	Tomares(home)	5-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 10
Apr 18, 2026	Bollullos(home)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 10
Apr 12, 2026	Sevilla III(away)	3-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 10

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Xerez win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Ciudad de Lucena win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
May 1, 2024	Ciudad de Lucena 0-0 Xerez	Tercera División RFEF - Group 10
Dec 17, 2023	Xerez 1-1 Ciudad de Lucena	Tercera División RFEF - Group 10
Jan 22, 2023	Xerez 0-1 Ciudad de Lucena	Tercera División RFEF - Group 10
Sep 25, 2022	Ciudad de Lucena 2-1 Xerez	Tercera División RFEF - Group 10
Mar 5, 2022	Xerez 3-0 Ciudad de Lucena	Tercera División RFEF - Group 10
Nov 7, 2021	Ciudad de Lucena 1-0 Xerez	Tercera División RFEF - Group 10

Last archived meeting: Ciudad de Lucena vs Xerez on May 1, 2024

How many goals should we expect?

Xerez score 0.7 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Ciudad de Lucena score 2.5 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Xerez	0.7	0.5	8	4/15	2/15
Ciudad de Lucena	2.5	0.7	9	5/15	11/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
4	Xerez	34	17	8	9	32	24	59

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Xerez vs Ciudad de Lucena?: The Footlab model makes Xerez the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Ciudad de Lucena.
Where and when is Xerez vs Ciudad de Lucena played?: Xerez vs Ciudad de Lucena is played on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Chapín, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 4.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.